The New York Times on Thursday revealed some new details about a story which many Israeli defense journalists, including The Jerusalem Post, had known, but had been unable to disclose: the circumstances of how and why Israel has declined to attack Iran’s nuclear program over the last several months.
Who leaked this story to the New York Times and why?
Rivals of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, former prime ministers Naftali Bennett, Yair Lapid, and former defense minister Avigdor Liberman, all attacked Netanyahu regarding the story, even alleging that he was leaking it in order to try to protect himself from political attacks against him for having talked tough, but done little against Iran during this period.
Bennett and Liberman have repeatedly called on Netanyahu to attack the Islamic Republic’s nuclear sites since October 2024, while Lapid previously called on Netanyahu to strike Tehran’s oil fields.
But looking over the reporters involved, there were five of them, and the lead reporters were American, not Israeli reporter Ronen Bergman, who was listed fifth.
This suggests that most of the report came from leaks from American officials, though Netanyahu does occasionally leak directly to American journalists.
A Netanyahu leak?
To the extent that parts of the story came from Netanyahu, it would be to explain why he has not attacked Iran’s nuclear program, by putting the onus on Trump.
To the extent that parts of the story came from American officials, they could be both messaging the US public about the complex dilemmas of negotiating versus attacking Iran, and messaging Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Regarding Khamenei, the message may also be dual – between letting him know how close he came in the recent past to watching his nuclear program burst out in flames and letting him know how close Israel may be to attacking that program in the near future if no deal is cut.
One fascinating piece of the article was the open discussion of the potential use of Israeli commandos on the ground in Iran against underground Iranian nuclear facilities.
Israel’s capability for attacking Khamenei’s nuclear facilities underground only became familiar to the public on January 2 of this year. That was when the September 8, 2024 Israeli commando operation against Syria was revealed. Even after that revelation, dropping hints that something similar could be done in Iran was often seen as off limits for Israeli journalists or could only be done with vague hints.
As Iran asks itself whether the IDF might actually go after its nuclear sites directly, now Israel and America are threatening Khamenei more directly with this commando option.
Another option besides a simple Israeli airstrike would be a joint Israeli-American airstrike, something which the article makes clear was vetoed for now, but could be quickly restored as an option.
Iran is fearful of an Israeli airstrike, but is even more fearful of a joint airstrike with Washington.
So on one hand, this article may be politically self-serving to Netanyahu and could be used to attack him for playing politics with classified potential war plans.
On the other hand, since Iran started to attack Israel directly in 2024, the Jewish state has been far more open about what it has done and can do to Iran in order to deter or intimidate Khamenei into nuclear concessions.
Whether these messages make a nuclear deal more or less likely and how much they may move Khamenei to make more significant nuclear concessions remains to be seen.
