Colonel (res.) Dr. Moshe Elad, an expert on Lebanon and lecturer at the Western Galilee College, discussed Lebanon’s complex reality with Maariv, saying Lebanon has reached its “moment of truth.” A country torn between hope for national reconstruction and the fear of Hezbollah’s forces erupting again.
Elad, who, while in the IDF, oversaw the Tyre and Bint Jbeil regions in the security zone, presents a nuanced picture of Lebanon. “This is Lebanon’s moment of truth,” he says.
“For the first time since Hezbollah’s establishment, the organization that seized Lebanon and turned it into a ‘terrorist group with its own state,’ there are ‘Ben-Gurion-like’ attempts to create a regime in Lebanon with one government, one constitution, and one weapon. It won’t be easy, and there are great doubts about whether this will succeed.”
Elad emphasizes that Hezbollah remains a major force in Lebanon. “Despite the severe blow Hezbollah suffered from Israel, the organization is still stronger than several Lebanese armies. Everything depends on it. If Hezbollah wants, it could stage a government coup and reclaim control. If it desires, millions of Shiites will obey it, seeing the organization as their ultimate source of belonging.”
But why isn’t Hezbollah acting now? Elad explains, saying, “Hezbollah isn’t afraid of the Lebanese government, even with the backing of the United States and Europe, which seek to revive Beirut as ‘the Paris of the Middle East.’ It doesn’t regard the new government under President Michel Aoun, Prime Minister Najib Mikati, or Chief of Staff Joseph Aoun. It simply yields to public opinion, to the common citizen who requested and even begged for a chance for the new government to rebuild the country.”
Elad offers a critical description of Lebanon’s current state: “The Lebanese citizens have forgotten what it means to have running water, continuous electricity, clean streets, or a currency that holds any value. Hezbollah allows the new government to act towards Lebanon’s reconstruction and does not intervene. From time to time, Hezbollah leaders make threats, but when it comes to actual confrontation with the government, or attempts to impose arrangements or even retaliation against Israel following the elimination of senior figures, there is total compliance.”
Additionally, Elad criticizes those who mock Hezbollah’s de facto leader, Naim Qassem: “Some wanted to provoke Naim Qassem, ‘the sweeper,’ Hezbollah’s effective leader, and depict him as a poodle-like lapdog following the orders of his new masters. We shouldn’t be mistaken. When President Aoun demanded that Hezbollah disarm, the organization drew a line and declared: ‘This is enough.'”
Elad adds that Qassem’s explanation was clear, noting, “As long as Israel occupies five strategic points in Lebanon, as long as the Israeli threat remains, and until the territorial issues with Israel are resolved, Hezbollah will hold on to its weapons.”
Lebanese government’s attempt at a compromise with Hezbollah
A compromise was proposed by the Lebanese leadership, including moderate Shiites. “Various leaders, including moderate Shiites, suggested a compromise: Hezbollah would store its weapons in Lebanese Army warehouses and would not have access to these stores as long as the country heads towards a security, economic, and social overhaul.”
But it doesn’t seem that Hezbollah is eager to agree, Elad said. “Hezbollah is not eager to give up its missiles and weapons. If it does, it would be a significant development that could pave the way for other terrorist organizations to seek to transform into political entities, such as Hamas, the Turkish PKK, and other terror groups worldwide.”
