If there is a nuclear deal, the latest leaks are starting to fill in the blanks.
US President Donald Trump may soon be able to accurately claim that he received more from Iran in his nuclear deal than former US presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden.
This would be true in at least two potential areas: having American nuclear inspectors in Iranian nuclear facilities and not just IAEA inspectors who are not American, as well as a complete pause in enriching uranium, even at low levels, for a symbolic time period of possibly around a year.
And yet, The Jerusalem Post understands that top Israeli officials are far more fearful of the potential Trump nuclear deal with Iran than they were even of the 2015 JCPOA deal, which most of them did view as highly flawed.
Regarding Biden, there was never a final deal, but the most progress Biden almost achieved was an Iranian freeze in 60% enriched uranium.
This was part of a Biden deal in fall 2023, which would have led the US to direct around $6 billion of frozen funds back to the Islamic Republic.
However, just before the funds were due to be transferred, Hamas invaded Israel, the Middle East caught fire, and the deal itself fell apart.
Regarding Obama, he succeeded in moving Tehran back from the medium 20% uranium enrichment level to the low 3.67% level, but never got a complete pause.
Obama also got extensive IAEA nuclear inspector access to Iranian nuclear facilities, but no Americans were included.
And there might be other concessions that Trump might get that neither Biden nor Obama got, such as guarantees not to attack American forces, and possibly even some pause in certain ballistic missile tests which could have dual uses between conventional and nuclear warheads.
If so, why are Israeli officials so terrified?
Trump’s potential nuclear deal with Iran
First of all, there have been extensive efforts by Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, Mossad Director David Barnea, IDF Intelligence Chief Maj. Gen. Shlomi Binder, to fly to various Middle Eastern, European, and American locations to try to convince Trump and his envoy, Steve Witkoff, to hold the line on various nuclear issues.
While these officials do believe they have made some progress, there is still a deep fear that the fundamental trajectory of negotiations is for Trump to cut a deal, even if it does not fulfill all of Israel’s security requirements.
Also, if Trump cuts a deal and tells Israel to stand down, this would probably not only hold it back from an over attack, but also might hold it back from covert Mossad-style operations.
This is problematic because of advanced centrifuges, advances in nuclear science, and because Israel right now has a unique once-in-a-lifetime window to attack the Islamic Republic’s nuclear facilities, which may not come again.
In 2015, Iran needed close to 20,000 old IR-1 centrifuges to enrich enough uranium for a nuclear weapon, and simply putting them in storage moved it a year away from the bomb.
But in 2025, Iran has thousands of advanced IR-4 and IR-6 centrifuges. A mere few hundred of these can be hidden in a much smaller facility than the known declared facilities at Natanz and Fordow and could get Tehran from zero to weaponized enriched uranium in only a few months.
Also, the fact that Iran now enriches to the 60% level with ease, a hop, skip, and a jump from the weaponized level, whereas in 2015 they had only learned how to get up to the medium 20% level, means that they have the nuclear science forever mastered.
Finally, Israel’s October 26, 2024, strikes on the Islamic Republic removed all of their S-300 anti-aircraft defense systems from the board.
This means that even as Iran still has anti-aircraft defenses, what they have left against Israel’s cutting-edge F-35 aircraft is almost like trying to use bows and arrows to fight against machine guns.
In contrast, while Israel hoped it had the capability to successfully attack Iran’s nuclear facilities in 2015, such an attack had never been managed before and remained a large question mark.
Add on that at this moment, Hamas and Hezbollah are neutralized in terms of their ability to retaliate on Iran’s behalf (in 2015, both were significant threats), and there could be no better time for the IDF to attack.
In summary, all the better terms of the nuclear deal that Trump is discussing would still leave Iran no more than a few months away from a nuclear weapon, and they would prevent Israel from attacking at its most opportune moment in decades.
